Milton Keynes Dons 2–3 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Grimsby

C. Lemonheigh-Evans 90'

G. McEachran 47' (OG)

C. Vernam 29'

J. Kabia 23'

K. Green 9'

9/6/2025

League Two · Round 7Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons46%

×Draw25%

Grimsby29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons

1.55

Grimsby

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 35 away

1.79

creates per match

1.49

0.82

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.79

Grimsby

1.49

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.82

Grimsby

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

71%

Milton Keynes Dons or Grimsby

75%

Draw or Grimsby

54%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

23%

Grimsby wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

79%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

46%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Grimsby 1+ goals

69%

Grimsby 2+ goals

32%

Grimsby 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

62%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.79 + Grimsby defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.55

Grimsby attack 1.49 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

46%

level

25%

Grimsby scores more

29%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

C. Vernam

Grimsby · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

Luke Offord

9'

K. Green↳ C. Vernam

23'

J. Kabia

29'

C. Vernam↳ G. McEachran

35'

A. Nemane← L. Offord

36'

Jon Mellish

46'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← S. Hogan

47'

G. McEachranOwn goal

72'

W. Collar← K. Wilson

72'

J. Soonsup-Bell← C. Vernam

74'

Liam Kelly

79'

J. Leko← R. Hepburn-Murphy

80'

D. Crowley← L. Kelly

84'

D. Rose← J. Kabia

86'

George McEachran

89'

N. Eccleston← D. Burns

90'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans↳ C. Paterson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonGrimsby

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots13

6Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots13

2On Target8

4Off Target1

2Blocked4

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

29%Possession71%

243Total Passes651

146Accurate Passes551

60%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 2–3 Grimsby

Grimsby beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 in League Two on September 6, 2025.

Goals: K. Green (9'), J. Kabia (23'), C. Vernam (29'), G. McEachran (47' o.g.), C. Lemonheigh-Evans (90').

Grimsby controlled possession (71%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Grimsby — League Two 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 2–3 Grimsby