Milton Keynes Dons 3–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

C. Paterson 69'

N. Mendez-Laing 57'

S. Gale 6' (OG)

J. Williams 90'

S. Palmer-Houlden 76'

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 11Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons54%

×Draw25%

Gillingham21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.88

Milton Keynes Dons

1.59

Gillingham

0.88

Milton Keynes Dons creates 81% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.72

creates per match

0.96

0.79

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.72

Gillingham

0.96

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.79

Gillingham

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

79%

Milton Keynes Dons or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

46%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

29%

Gillingham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

80%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

47%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

21%

Gillingham 1+ goals

59%

Gillingham 2+ goals

22%

Gillingham 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

72%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.72 + Gillingham defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gillingham attack 0.96 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

54%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

21%

Milton Keynes Dons at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Nemane

Milton Keynes Dons · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

S. GaleOwn goal

34'

Andy Smith

57'

N. Mendez-Laing↳ L. Kelly

60'

Remeao Hutton

63'

Laurence Maguire

63'

Josh Andrews

65'

S. Palmer-Houlden← E. Nevitt

65'

S. Vokes← J. Andrews

69'

C. Paterson↳ W. Collar

76'

M. Clark← S. Ogie

76'

L. Cirino← A. Rowe

76'

S. Palmer-Houlden

83'

D. Crowley← L. Kelly

83'

K. Thompson-Sommers← W. Collar

87'

N. Thompson← L. Maguire

87'

J. Leko← N. Mendez-Laing

90+3'

Jonathan Leko

90'

J. Williams↳ S. Gale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonGillingham

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots14

3Corners4

20Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

8Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

287Total Passes322

168Accurate Passes204

59%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2