Milton Keynes Dons 2–2 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chesterfield

R. Hepburn-Murphy 44'

C. Paterson 29'

W. Grigg 90'

S. Curtis 67'

1/4/2026

League Two · Round 25Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons46%

×Draw26%

Chesterfield28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Milton Keynes Dons

1.48

Chesterfield

1.10

Milton Keynes Dons creates 35% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.70

creates per match

1.40

0.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.70

Chesterfield

1.40

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.80

Chesterfield

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

72%

Milton Keynes Dons or Chesterfield

74%

Draw or Chesterfield

54%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

23%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

77%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

43%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

19%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

67%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

30%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

62%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.70 + Chesterfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chesterfield attack 1.40 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

46%

level

26%

Chesterfield scores more

28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Mandeville

Chesterfield · M

8.0

Match Events

6'

Adam Lewis

26'

Aaron Nemane

29'

C. Paterson↳ A. Nemane

31'

T. Naylor← J. Donacien

44'

R. Hepburn-Murphy↳ J. Mellish

46'

54'

58'

66'

66'

67'

S. Curtis↳ L. Mandeville

70'

K. Thompson-Sommers← D. Crowley

71'

S. Hogan← R. Hepburn-Murphy

76'

A. Collins← J. Mellish

76'

V. Daley-Campbell← S. Curtis

79'

Liam Kelly

90+4'

Will Grigg

90'

W. Grigg↳ L. Mandeville

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonChesterfield

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots9

4Corners6

14Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

261Total Passes538

176Accurate Passes447

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1