Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Bromley: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bromley

B. Wiles 17'

N. Mendez-Laing 1'

M. Ifill 74'

4/11/2026

League Two · Round 43Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw26%

Bromley30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons

1.45

Bromley

1.16

Milton Keynes Dons creates 25% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 46 away

1.64

creates per match

1.28

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.64

Bromley

1.28

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.03

Bromley

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Bromley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

70%

Milton Keynes Dons or Bromley

74%

Draw or Bromley

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

21%

Bromley wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

77%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

42%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

18%

Bromley 1+ goals

69%

Bromley 2+ goals

32%

Bromley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

59%

Bromley (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Bromley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bromley attack 1.28 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

26%

Bromley scores more

30%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. MacGillivray

Milton Keynes Dons · G

8.5

Match Events

1'

N. Mendez-Laing

17'

B. Wiles↳ G. Jones

18'

Curtis Nelson

46'

B. Thompson← C. Whitely

46'

Z. Medley← I. Odutayo

46'

J. Arthurs← W. Hondermarck

46'

B. Krauhaus← D. Ajayi

65'

A. Collins← N. Mendez-Laing

66'

67'

67'

67'

70'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← L. Kelly

71'

Zech Medley

74'

M. Ifill

83'

J. Tomlinson← G. Jones

86'

Jude Arthurs

90+2'

G. Evans← A. Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonBromley

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots19

2.10Expected Goals (xG)1.85

2Corners9

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots19

4On Target7

3Off Target5

3Blocked7

9Inside Box10

1Outside Box9

Passing

41%Possession59%

255Total Passes349

151Accurate Passes231

59%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1