Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 AFC Wimbledon

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

W. O'Hora 22'

R. Johnson 16' (OG)

D. Kemp 10'

A. Little 53'

1/23/2024

League Two · Round 18Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw28%

AFC Wimbledon28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Milton Keynes Dons

1.28

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

Milton Keynes Dons creates 33% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

1.64

creates per match

0.89

1.03

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.64

AFC Wimbledon

0.89

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.03

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

72%

Milton Keynes Dons or AFC Wimbledon

72%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

20%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

37%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

62%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

25%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

61%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + AFC Wimbledon defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

28%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tomlinson

Milton Keynes Dons · M

8.7

Match Events

10'

D. Kemp↳ J. Tomlinson

16'

R. JohnsonOwn goal

19'

P. Kalambayi← R. Johnson

22'

W. O'Hora↳ E. Robson

45+2'

K. Lofthouse← C. Norman

46'

J. Gordon← J. Davison

46'

H. Pell← J. Ball

53'

A. Little

56'

James Tilley

64'

D. Harvie← D. Lewington

65'

69'

73'

76'

79'

87'

Mohamed Eisa← M. Dean

87'

L. Bate← D. Kemp

87'

E. Harrison← E. Robson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonAFC

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots8

3Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots8

12On Target2

3Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

685Total Passes309

600Accurate Passes220

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

11Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

2Offsides4