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Milsami Orhei vs Victoria Bardar — Cupa 2020

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orheiadvanced
FT
7 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
A. Puntus 90', 86', 63', 49'
V. Jardan 61', 11'
I. Drăgan 15'
I. Pavlov 8'
10/27/2020CupaCupa · Round of 16Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milsami Orhei38%
×Draw20%
Victoria Bardar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
2.19
Victoria Bardar
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
2.45
Victoria Bardar
3.58

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
1.09
Victoria Bardar
1.92

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
57%
Milsami Orhei or Victoria Bardar
80%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
62%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
21%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
89%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
64%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
37%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
90%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
67%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
47%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 2.45 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.19

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
38%
level
20%
Victoria Bardar scores more
43%

Victoria Bardar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
I. Pavlov
11'
V. Jardan
15'
I. Drăgan
49'
A. Puntus
61'
V. Jardan
63'
A. Puntus
86'
A. Puntus
90'
A. Puntus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Milsami Orhei 7–1 Victoria Bardar

Milsami Orhei beat Victoria Bardar 7-1 in Cupa on October 27, 2020.

Goals: I. Pavlov (8'), V. Jardan (11', 61'), I. Drăgan (15'), A. Puntus (49', 63', 86', 90').

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.