Milsami Orhei 1–1 Speranţa Nisporeni

Milsami Orhei

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Speranţa Nisporeni

D. Graur 21'

I. Drăgan 39'

4/27/2019

Super Liga · Round 7Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Milsami Orhei54%

×Draw24%

Speranţa Nisporeni22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milsami OrheiExpected goals in this matchSperanţa Nisporeni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.04

Milsami Orhei

1.75

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.04

Milsami Orhei creates 68% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 27 away

1.66

creates per match

1.11

0.98

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Milsami Orhei

1.66

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.11

allows per match

Milsami Orhei

0.98

Speranţa Nisporeni

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Speranţa Nisporeni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Speranţa Nisporeni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw

78%

Milsami Orhei or Speranţa Nisporeni

76%

Draw or Speranţa Nisporeni

46%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

30%

Speranţa Nisporeni wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

83%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

52%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

25%

Speranţa Nisporeni 1+ goals

65%

Speranţa Nisporeni 2+ goals

28%

Speranţa Nisporeni 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

71%

Speranţa Nisporeni (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 97 matches

Speranţa Nisporeni away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 1.66 + Speranţa Nisporeni defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Speranţa Nisporeni attack 1.11 + Milsami Orhei defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more

54%

level

24%

Speranţa Nisporeni scores more

22%

Milsami Orhei at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Graur

36'

F. Eloundou← C. Sandu

39'

I. Drăgan

61'

M. Antoniuc← T. Koblov

73'

F. Ponce← M. Iurcu

80'

Bruno← I. Drăgan

83'

V. Zagaevschii← A. Pătraş

Milsami

Speranţa

25

31

22

5

17

4

8

▼

Sandu

98

Mirzoev

87

Chelari

93

▼

Iurcu

10

⚽

▼

Drăgan

1

Mîţu

23

Bolohan

22

⚽

2

16

24

8

▼

5

7

13

18

▼

Koblov

Manager: V. Rusnac

61'▲M. Antoniuc←▼T. Koblov

83'▲V. Zagaevschii←▼A. Pătraş

Milsami Orhei substitutes

9Antoniuc26Zagaevschii11Ciobanu15Ibrian19Ba50Chirinciuc17Martin

Manager: C. Efros

36'▲F. Eloundou←▼C. Sandu

73'▲F. Ponce←▼M. Iurcu

80'▲Bruno←▼I. Drăgan

Speranţa Nisporeni substitutes

11Eloundou9Ponce6Bruno30Macogonenco7Oprea21Titievschii23Yusuf