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Milsami Orhei vs Spartanii Selemet — Cupa 2020

Milsami Orhei
Milsami Orheiadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartanii Selemet
Spartanii Selemet
3/3/2026CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsComplexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milsami Orhei60%
×Draw20%
Spartanii Selemet20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milsami Orhei
2.29
Spartanii Selemet
1.26

Milsami Orhei creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Milsami Orhei
2.45
Spartanii Selemet
1.43

allows per match

Milsami Orhei
1.09
Spartanii Selemet
2.14

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par
Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Spartanii Selemet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw
80%
Milsami Orhei or Spartanii Selemet
80%
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
40%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+
38%
Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals
90%
Milsami Orhei 2+ goals
66%
Milsami Orhei 3+ goals
40%
Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals
72%
Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals
36%
Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)
75%
Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 2.45 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.43 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more
60%
level
20%
Spartanii Selemet scores more
20%

Milsami Orhei at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milsami Orhei vs Spartanii Selemet

Milsami Orhei beat Spartanii Selemet 5-0 in Cupa on March 3, 2026.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Raional in Orhei.