Milsami Orhei 3–1 Spartanii Selemet: Result & Stats

Milsami Orhei

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Spartanii Selemet

11/25/2023

Super Liga · Round 13Complexul Sportiv Raional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Milsami Orhei61%

×Draw21%

Spartanii Selemet18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milsami OrheiExpected goals in this matchSpartanii Selemet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.99

Milsami Orhei

2.00

Spartanii Selemet

0.99

Milsami Orhei creates 102% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 48 away

1.66

creates per match

1.00

0.98

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Milsami Orhei

1.66

Spartanii Selemet

1.00

allows per match

Milsami Orhei

0.98

Spartanii Selemet

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Spartanii Selemet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Spartanii Selemet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw

82%

Milsami Orhei or Spartanii Selemet

79%

Draw or Spartanii Selemet

39%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

37%

Spartanii Selemet wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

86%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

59%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

32%

Spartanii Selemet 1+ goals

63%

Spartanii Selemet 2+ goals

26%

Spartanii Selemet 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

77%

Spartanii Selemet (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

Spartanii Selemet away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 1.66 + Spartanii Selemet defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Spartanii Selemet attack 1.00 + Milsami Orhei defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more

61%

level

21%

Spartanii Selemet scores more

18%

Milsami Orhei at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff