Milsami Orhei 2–1 Dacia: Result & Stats

Milsami Orhei

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dacia

7/23/2017

Super Liga · Round 3Complexul Sportiv Raional (Orhei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Milsami Orhei51%

×Draw24%

Dacia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milsami OrheiExpected goals in this matchDacia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.14

Milsami Orhei

1.73

Dacia

1.14

Milsami Orhei creates 52% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 10 away

1.66

creates per match

1.30

0.98

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Milsami Orhei

1.66

Dacia

1.30

allows per match

Milsami Orhei

0.98

Dacia

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Dacia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milsami Orhei ↓

Dacia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Milsami Orhei or draw

75%

Milsami Orhei or Dacia

76%

Draw or Dacia

49%

Winning margin

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

28%

Dacia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

82%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

52%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

25%

Dacia 1+ goals

68%

Dacia 2+ goals

32%

Dacia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

67%

Dacia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milsami Orhei at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

Dacia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milsami Orhei attack 1.66 + Dacia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dacia attack 1.30 + Milsami Orhei defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Milsami Orhei scores more

51%

level

24%

Dacia scores more

25%

Milsami Orhei at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Milsami Orhei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff