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Mils vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mils
Mils
FT
4 – 0
Zams
Zams
5/22/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 25Sportplatz Mils

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mils66%
×Draw17%
Zams18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mils
2.88
Zams
1.47

Mils creates 96% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 29 away

creates per match

Mils
2.44
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Mils
2.09
Zams
3.31

finishing

Mils+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mils ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Mils or draw
82%
Mils or Zams
83%
Draw or Zams
34%

Winning margin

Mils wins by 2+
46%
Zams wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mils 1+ goals
94%
Mils 2+ goals
78%
Mils 3+ goals
54%
Zams 1+ goals
77%
Zams 2+ goals
43%
Zams 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mils (draw refunded)
79%
Zams (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mils at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.09 · 70 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mils attack 2.44 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.88

Zams attack 0.86 + Mils defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mils scores more
66%
level
17%
Zams scores more
18%

Mils at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mils vs Zams

Mils beat Zams 4-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mils in Mils.