Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mils vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mils
Mils
FT
3 – 3
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
6/11/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 29Sportplatz Mils

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mils47%
×Draw20%
Kirchbichl33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mils
2.31
Kirchbichl
1.93

Mils creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mils
2.44
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

Mils
2.09
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

Mils+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mils ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mils or draw
67%
Mils or Kirchbichl
80%
Draw or Kirchbichl
53%

Winning margin

Mils wins by 2+
28%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mils 1+ goals
90%
Mils 2+ goals
67%
Mils 3+ goals
40%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
85%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
57%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Mils (draw refunded)
59%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mils at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.09 · 70 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mils attack 2.44 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.31

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Mils defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mils scores more
47%
level
20%
Kirchbichl scores more
33%

Mils at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Mils 3–3 Kirchbichl

Mils and Kirchbichl drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Tirol on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mils in Mils.