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Millwall vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
Preview
18:45
Wrexham
Wrexham
9/2/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4The Den
43%
Millwall
model favours
43%28%29%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Millwall43%
×Draw28%
Wrexham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.32
Wrexham
1.04

Millwall creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Wrexham
0.87

allows per match

Millwall
1.21
Wrexham
1.38

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Wrexham+0.73scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
Wrexham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
38%
Millwall 3+ goals
15%
Wrexham 1+ goals
65%
Wrexham 2+ goals
28%
Wrexham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
59%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.21 · 13 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Wrexham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wrexham attack 0.87 + Millwall defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more
43%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Millwall
Balanced
Wrexham
Balanced
46%Possession50%
69%Pass accuracy79%
11.8Shots10.3
1.30xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillwallWrexham

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millwall
LDWD
Wrexham
DDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Millwall face Wrexham (Championship)

Championship returns with Millwall hosting Wrexham. Match starts September 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Millwall host Wrexham at The Den.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.