Millwall 3–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

Z. Sturge 72'

F. Azeez 56'

J. Cooper 18'

10/4/2025

Championship · Round 9The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Millwall32%

×Draw28%

West Brom40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.26

Millwall

1.10

West Brom

1.26

West Brom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

1.26

creates per match

1.42

1.10

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

West Brom

1.42

allows per match

Millwall

1.10

West Brom

0.94

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall+0.05on par

West Brom-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

60%

Millwall or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

68%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

West Brom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

30%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

West Brom 1+ goals

72%

West Brom 2+ goals

36%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

45%

West Brom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 16 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + West Brom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

West Brom attack 1.42 + Millwall defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millwall scores more

32%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

40%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Cooper

Millwall · D

8.3

Match Events

12'

18'

30'

45+2'

56'

F. Azeez↳ B. Mitchell

62'

J. Maja← J. Wallace

62'

S. Iling Junior← I. Price

68'

C. Neghli← F. Azeez

72'

Z. Sturge↳ T. Ballo

78'

L. Cundle← W. Smallbone

78'

D. Mazou-Sacko← B. Mitchell

79'

M. Ivanovic← J. Coburn

79'

O. Diakite← J. Molumby

79'

A. Mowatt← T. Collyer

85'

A. Emakhu← T. Ballo

89'

O. Bostock← M. Johnston

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWest

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots10

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.42

4Corners5

17Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked5

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

318Total Passes497

217Accurate Passes401

68%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.40Goals Prevented-1.40

Discipline

17Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Championship: Millwall 3–0 West Brom

Millwall beat West Brom 3-0 in Championship on October 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Cooper (18'), F. Azeez (56'), Z. Sturge (72').

West Brom controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 3–0 West Brom