Millwall 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

T. Burey 90'

C. Styles 38'

J. Swift 20'

10/22/2022

Championship · Round 17The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Millwall40%

×Draw28%

West Brom32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Millwall

1.25

West Brom

1.08

Millwall creates 16% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

1.26

creates per match

1.14

1.03

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

West Brom

1.24

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

West Brom-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

68%

Millwall or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

60%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

18%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

36%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

66%

West Brom 2+ goals

29%

West Brom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

56%

West Brom (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + West Brom defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millwall scores more

40%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

32%

Millwall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

K. Bartley

West Brom · D

7.5

Match Events

20'

J. Swift↳ J. Wallace

31'

Billy Mitchell

38'

C. Styles

46'

C. Cresswell← S. Hutchinson

58'

T. Burey← A. Voglsammer

64'

C. Townsend← E. Pieters

68'

Kyle Bartley

75'

J. Molumby← T. Gardner-Hickman

75'

T. Rogić← J. Swift

76'

B. Afobe← T. Bradshaw

83'

M. Bennett← C. Styles

83'

G. Honeyman← Z. Flemming

84'

M. Phillips← K. Ahearne-Grant

85'

Kyle Bartley

85'

Kyle Bartley

90'

T. Burey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWest

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots8

5Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target2

7Off Target2

8Blocked4

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

362Total Passes424

246Accurate Passes310

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0