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Millwall vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
4/6/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Millwall40%
×Draw28%
West Brom32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.27
West Brom
1.09

Millwall creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 40 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.34
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Millwall
0.99
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Millwall-0.07on par
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
68%
Millwall or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
60%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
36%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
30%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
56%
West Brom (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 37 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.34 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millwall scores more
40%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
32%

Millwall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall vs West Brom

Millwall beat West Brom 2-0 in Championship on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at The Den in London.