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Millwall vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
11/23/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall42%
×Draw29%
Sunderland29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.25
Sunderland
0.99

Millwall creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.32
Sunderland
0.99

allows per match

Millwall
0.99
Sunderland
1.19

finishing

Millwall-0.08on par
Sunderland+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Sunderland
71%
Draw or Sunderland
58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
19%
Sunderland wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
71%
Millwall 2+ goals
36%
Millwall 3+ goals
13%
Sunderland 1+ goals
63%
Sunderland 2+ goals
26%
Sunderland 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
59%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.99 · 38 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.32 + Sunderland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sunderland attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more
42%
level
29%
Sunderland scores more
29%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall vs Sunderland

Millwall and Sunderland drew 1-1 in Championship on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at The Den in London.