Millwall 3–2 Southampton: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

T. Crama 90'

C. Taylor 81'

F. Azeez 72'

F. Azaz 87'

A. Armstrong 55' (pen)

11/29/2025

Championship · Round 18The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall39%

×Draw26%

Southampton35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Millwall

1.36

Southampton

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

1.54

1.03

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Millwall

1.31

Southampton

1.54

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Southampton

1.41

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall+0.09on par

Southampton+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

61%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

18%

Southampton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Southampton 1+ goals

72%

Southampton 2+ goals

37%

Southampton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Southampton (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 20 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.31 + Southampton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Southampton attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Millwall scores more

39%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

35%

Millwall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

T. Crama

Millwall · D

8.5

Match Events

36'

Tom Fellows

47'

Adam Armstrong

55'

A. ArmstrongPenalty

62'

J. Aribo← J. Robinson

72'

F. Azeez↳ T. Crama

73'

C. Neghli← R. Bangura-Williams

74'

A. Doughty← D. McNamara

76'

R. Fraser← T. Fellows

76'

O. Romeu← C. Bragg

78'

T. Ballo← F. Azeez

81'

C. Taylor↳ C. De Norre

87'

F. Azaz

88'

M. Langstaff← D. Kelly

88'

Z. Lovelace← A. Emakhu

90+7'

Tristan Crama

90'

T. Crama↳ T. Ballo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSouthampton

Overview

41%Possession59%

21Total Shots11

1.83Expected Goals (xG)1.20

9Corners6

11Fouls6

Shots

21Total Shots11

7On Target8

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

13Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

301Total Passes467

227Accurate Passes385

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

-0.74Goals Prevented-0.74

Discipline

11Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3