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Millwall vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Southampton
Southampton
3/17/2012ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Millwall37%
×Draw27%
Southampton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.29
Southampton
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 44 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Southampton
1.54

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Southampton
1.33

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
63%
Millwall or Southampton
73%
Draw or Southampton
63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
16%
Southampton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Southampton 1+ goals
72%
Southampton 2+ goals
37%
Southampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
50%
Southampton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Southampton attack 1.54 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more
37%
level
27%
Southampton scores more
37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Millwall 2–3 Southampton

Southampton beat Millwall 3-2 in Championship on March 17, 2012.

The match was played at The Den.