Millwall 2–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

12/6/2019

Championship · Round 20The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Millwall37%

×Draw29%

Nottingham Forest35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.10

Millwall

1.14

Nottingham Forest

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 185 home / 95 away

1.24

creates per match

1.16

1.04

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Nottingham Forest

71%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

15%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

68%

Millwall 2+ goals

32%

Millwall 3+ goals

11%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

67%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

30%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more

37%

level

29%

Nottingham Forest scores more

35%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff