Millwall 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

T. Bradshaw 18'

12/29/2023

Championship · Round 25The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Millwall38%

×Draw27%

Norwich35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.22

Millwall

1.30

Norwich

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.34

creates per match

1.41

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Millwall

1.34

Norwich

1.41

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Norwich

1.26

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Millwall+0.05on par

Norwich+0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Norwich wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

34%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

53%

Norwich (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.03 · 18 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.34 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Norwich attack 1.41 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

38%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

35%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Gunn

Norwich · G

7.9

Match Events

18'

T. Bradshaw↳ B. Norton-Cuffy

60'

61'

63'

63'

63'

J. Rowe← O. Hernández

72'

R. Longman← A. Emakhu

72'

D. Watmore← Z. Flemming

75'

Kenny McLean

77'

P. Płacheta← S. McCallum

78'

J. Sargent← Hwang Ui-Jo

81'

George Honeyman

81'

Josh Sargent

83'

K. Nisbet← T. Bradshaw

88'

90+2'

90+2'

90+8'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallNorwich

Overview

35%Possession65%

11Total Shots11

2.21Expected Goals (xG)0.62

5Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots11

5On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

10Inside Box5

1Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

286Total Passes545

214Accurate Passes483

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Millwall vs Norwich

Millwall beat Norwich 1-0 in Championship on December 29, 2023.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (18').

Norwich controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Millwall vs Norwich