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Millwall vs Burnley — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
T. Bradshaw 85'
A. Barnes 51'
2/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Millwall33%
×Draw29%
Burnley38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.06
Burnley
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Burnley
1.28

allows per match

Millwall
1.03
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
62%
Millwall or Burnley
71%
Draw or Burnley
67%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
13%
Burnley wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
65%
Millwall 2+ goals
29%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%
Burnley 1+ goals
69%
Burnley 2+ goals
32%
Burnley 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
46%
Burnley (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Burnley attack 1.28 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more
33%
level
29%
Burnley scores more
38%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Z. FlemmingMillwallMillwall · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
Ameen Al-Dakhil
51'
A. Barnes
72'
R. Esse← G. Saville
72'
R. Leonard← J. Shackleton
73'
T. Bradshaw← D. Watmore
73'
J. Guðmunds­son← S. Twine
77'
Tom Bradshaw
83'
J. Cork← A. Zaroury
83'
C. Taylor← I. Maatsen
85'
T. Bradshaw
87'
A. Emakhu← A. Voglsammer
87'
N. Tella← Vitinho
88'
S. Malone← G. Honeyman

Possession

29%Millwall

Shots

12Millwall

Pass accuracy

41%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBurnley
Overview
29%Possession71%
12Total Shots17
3Corners6
7Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots17
3On Target3
6Off Target11
3Blocked3
6Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
29%Possession71%
233Total Passes559
136Accurate Passes458
58%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Burnley

Millwall and Burnley drew 1-1 in Championship on February 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Barnes (51'), T. Bradshaw (85').

Burnley controlled possession (71%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Den in London.