Millwall 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

J. Rodriguez 37'

10/1/2011

Championship · Round 10The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Millwall33%

×Draw29%

Burnley38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.16

Millwall

1.05

Burnley

1.16

Burnley creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

1.25

creates per match

1.28

1.04

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Burnley

1.28

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Burnley

0.86

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Burnley+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

62%

Millwall or Burnley

71%

Draw or Burnley

67%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

65%

Millwall 2+ goals

28%

Millwall 3+ goals

9%

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

46%

Burnley (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.86 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Burnley attack 1.28 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

33%

level

29%

Burnley scores more

38%

Burnley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Rodriguez↳ R. Wallace

46'

J. Marquis← J. Simpson

71'

H. Bouazza← J. Henry

73'

D. Marney← M. Bartley

79'

K. Treacy← J. Stanislas

Millwall

Burnley

1

21

15

24

20

▼

Bartley

2

K.Trippie

7

A

Wallace

6

McCann

9

⚽

Rodriguez

11

▼

23

1

18

16

17

5

22

14

▼

6

24

15

20

▼

Simpson

46'▲J. Marquis←▼J. Simpson

71'▲H. Bouazza←▼J. Henry

Millwall substitutes

9Marquis8Bouazza23Mildenhall2Dunne26Abdou

73'▲D. Marney←▼M. Bartley

79'▲K. Treacy←▼J. Stanislas

Burnley substitutes

8Marney26Treacy30Stewart16Hines36Mee