Millwall 1–1 Bolton: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bolton

J. Cooper 82'

M. Beevers 12'

11/24/2018

Championship · Round 18The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Millwall53%

×Draw25%

Bolton22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.91

Millwall

1.59

Bolton

0.91

Millwall creates 75% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 20 away

1.23

creates per match

0.75

1.06

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Millwall

1.23

Bolton

0.75

allows per match

Millwall

1.06

Bolton

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

78%

Millwall or Bolton

75%

Draw or Bolton

47%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

28%

Bolton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

80%

Millwall 2+ goals

47%

Millwall 3+ goals

21%

Bolton 1+ goals

60%

Bolton 2+ goals

23%

Bolton 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

71%

Bolton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.23 + Bolton defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

Bolton attack 0.75 + Millwall defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Millwall scores more

53%

level

25%

Bolton scores more

22%

Millwall at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

D. Wheater

Bolton · D

7.6

Match Events

7'

Marc Wilson

12'

M. Beevers↳ J. Williams

21'

Jason Lowe

37'

A. O'Brien← T. Elliott

45'

Shaun Hutchinson

46'

C. Donaldson← J. Magennis

61'

M. Romeo← C. McLaughlin

69'

C. Noone← W. Buckley

77'

J. Skalák← J. Meredith

82'

J. Cooper↳ J. Skalák

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBolton

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots9

10Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target4

2Off Target5

6Blocked0

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

529Total Passes272

409Accurate Passes161

77%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1