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Millwall vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
G. Evans 73'
T. Bradshaw 41'
M. Wallace 10'
T. Deeney 56'
12/4/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Millwall44%
×Draw28%
Birmingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.30
Birmingham
0.99

Millwall creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
72%
Millwall or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
63%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
61%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more
44%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
28%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. WallaceMillwallMillwall · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
M. Wallace↳ S. Hutchinson
20'
Kristian Pedersen
41'
T. Bradshaw↳ S. Malone
46'
L. Jutkiewicz← Jérémie Bela
50'
Marc Roberts
56'
T. Deeney↳ S. Hogan
73'
G. Evans↳ D. McNamara
80'
C. Aneke← S. Hogan
83'
M. Kieftenbeld← J. Wallace
86'
A. Pearce← S. Malone
89'
M. Bennett← T. Bradshaw

Possession

52%Millwall

Shots

19Millwall

Pass accuracy

50%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBirmingham
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots16
11Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots16
9On Target3
3Off Target5
7Blocked8
18Inside Box11
1Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
356Total Passes344
240Accurate Passes228
67%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 3–1 Birmingham

Millwall beat Birmingham 3-1 in Championship on December 4, 2021.

Goals: M. Wallace (10'), T. Bradshaw (41'), T. Deeney (56'), G. Evans (73').

Millwall controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Den in London.