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Birmingham vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
9/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Birmingham45%
×Draw25%
Millwall30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.56
Millwall
1.21

Birmingham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.78
Millwall
1.40

allows per match

Birmingham
1.01
Millwall
1.34

finishing

Birmingham-0.05on par
Millwall-0.15scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
70%
Birmingham or Millwall
75%
Draw or Millwall
55%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
23%
Millwall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham 2+ goals
46%
Birmingham 3+ goals
21%
Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
34%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
61%
Millwall (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Millwall attack 1.40 + Birmingham defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Birmingham scores more
45%
level
25%
Millwall scores more
30%

Birmingham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Birmingham 1–1 Millwall

Birmingham and Millwall drew 1-1 in Championship on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.