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Millwall vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham
Birmingham
B. Thompson 75'
J. Wallace 2'
2/17/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Millwall44%
×Draw28%
Birmingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.30
Birmingham
0.99

Millwall creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 34 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Birmingham
1.35

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
72%
Millwall or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
Birmingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Birmingham 1+ goals
63%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
61%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more
44%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
28%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
S. MaloneMillwallMillwall · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
J. Wallace
23'
A. Pearce← J. Cooper
53'
Rekeem Harper
59'
Y. Valery← San José
70'
Lukas Jutkiewicz
70'
Iván Sánchez← I. Šunjić
71'
B. Mitchell← M. Bennett
71'
J. Böðvarsson← M. Smith
75'
B. Thompson↳ S. Hutchinson
78'
Mahlon Romeo
79'
Ryan Woods
81'
Jérémie Bela← M. Colin
81'
J. Leko← L. Jutkiewicz
87'
T. Bradshaw← J. Wallace
87'
S. Ferguson← B. Thompson

Possession

37%Millwall

Shots

8Millwall

Pass accuracy

44%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBirmingham
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots12
2Corners5
14Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots12
4On Target3
3Off Target5
1Blocked4
7Inside Box9
1Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
244Total Passes390
135Accurate Passes275
55%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Birmingham

Millwall beat Birmingham 2-0 in Championship on February 17, 2021.

Goals: J. Wallace (2'), B. Thompson (75').

Birmingham controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Den in London.