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Millwall vs Barnsley — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barnsley
Barnsley
4/9/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Millwall46%
×Draw27%
Barnsley27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.39
Barnsley
0.98

Millwall creates 42% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 76 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.24
Barnsley
0.93

allows per match

Millwall
1.02
Barnsley
1.54

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
73%
Millwall or Barnsley
73%
Draw or Barnsley
54%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
22%
Barnsley wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
40%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%
Barnsley 1+ goals
62%
Barnsley 2+ goals
26%
Barnsley 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
64%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 185 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Millwall scores more
46%
level
27%
Barnsley scores more
27%

Millwall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Millwall 4–1 Barnsley

Millwall beat Barnsley 4-1 in Championship on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at The Den in London.