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Millwall Lionesses W vs Cheltenham Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Millwall Lionesses W
Millwall Lionesses W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cheltenham Town W
Cheltenham Town W
10/26/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Millwall Lionesses W52%
×Draw20%
Cheltenham Town W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall Lionesses W
2.38
Cheltenham Town W
1.75

Millwall Lionesses W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Millwall Lionesses W
3.75
Cheltenham Town W
2.50

allows per match

Millwall Lionesses W
1.00
Cheltenham Town W
1.00

finishing

Millwall Lionesses W+0.00on par
Cheltenham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall Lionesses W ↓

Cheltenham Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Millwall Lionesses W or draw
71%
Millwall Lionesses W or Cheltenham Town W
80%
Draw or Cheltenham Town W
48%

Winning margin

Millwall Lionesses W wins by 2+
32%
Cheltenham Town W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Millwall Lionesses W 1+ goals
91%
Millwall Lionesses W 2+ goals
68%
Millwall Lionesses W 3+ goals
42%
Cheltenham Town W 1+ goals
83%
Cheltenham Town W 2+ goals
52%
Cheltenham Town W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Millwall Lionesses W (draw refunded)
64%
Cheltenham Town W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall Lionesses W at home — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Cheltenham Town W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall Lionesses W attack 3.75 + Cheltenham Town W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Cheltenham Town W attack 2.50 + Millwall Lionesses W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Millwall Lionesses W scores more
52%
level
20%
Cheltenham Town W scores more
29%

Millwall Lionesses W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Millwall Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Millwall Lionesses W 0–2 Cheltenham Town W

Cheltenham Town W beat Millwall Lionesses W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on October 26, 2025.