Millwall Lionesses W 2–0 Bromley W: Result & Stats

Millwall Lionesses W

2 – 0

Bromley W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundSt Pauls’ Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Millwall Lionesses W75%

×Draw13%

Bromley W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Millwall Lionesses WExpected goals in this matchBromley W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.63

1.50

Millwall Lionesses W

3.63

Bromley W

1.50

Millwall Lionesses W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.75

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Millwall Lionesses W

3.75

Bromley W

2.00

allows per match

Millwall Lionesses W

1.00

Bromley W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall Lionesses W+0.00on par

Bromley W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall Lionesses W ↓

Bromley W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Millwall Lionesses W or draw

88%

Millwall Lionesses W or Bromley W

87%

Draw or Bromley W

25%

Winning margin

Millwall Lionesses W wins by 2+

57%

Bromley W wins by 2+

Team goals

Millwall Lionesses W 1+ goals

97%

Millwall Lionesses W 2+ goals

87%

Millwall Lionesses W 3+ goals

68%

Bromley W 1+ goals

78%

Bromley W 2+ goals

44%

Bromley W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Millwall Lionesses W (draw refunded)

86%

Bromley W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Millwall Lionesses W at home — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Bromley W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Millwall Lionesses W attack 3.75 + Bromley W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.63

Bromley W attack 2.00 + Millwall Lionesses W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Millwall Lionesses W scores more

75%

level

13%

Bromley W scores more

12%

Millwall Lionesses W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Millwall Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Millwall Lionesses W 2–0 Bromley W

Millwall Lionesses W beat Bromley W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at St Pauls’ Sports Ground in London.

Millwall Lionesses W vs Bromley W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Millwall Lionesses W 2–0 Bromley W