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Millwall Lionesses W vs AFC Wimbledon W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Millwall Lionesses W
Millwall Lionesses W
FT
0 – 2
AFC Wimbledon W
AFC Wimbledon W
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundSt Pauls’ Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Millwall Lionesses W56%
×Draw18%
AFC Wimbledon W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall Lionesses W
2.71
AFC Wimbledon W
1.83

Millwall Lionesses W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Millwall Lionesses W
3.75
AFC Wimbledon W
2.67

allows per match

Millwall Lionesses W
1.00
AFC Wimbledon W
1.67

finishing

Millwall Lionesses W+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall Lionesses W ↓

AFC Wimbledon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Millwall Lionesses W or draw
74%
Millwall Lionesses W or AFC Wimbledon W
82%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon W
44%

Winning margin

Millwall Lionesses W wins by 2+
36%
AFC Wimbledon W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Millwall Lionesses W 1+ goals
93%
Millwall Lionesses W 2+ goals
75%
Millwall Lionesses W 3+ goals
50%
AFC Wimbledon W 1+ goals
84%
AFC Wimbledon W 2+ goals
54%
AFC Wimbledon W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Millwall Lionesses W (draw refunded)
68%
AFC Wimbledon W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall Lionesses W at home — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

AFC Wimbledon W away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall Lionesses W attack 3.75 + AFC Wimbledon W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

AFC Wimbledon W attack 2.67 + Millwall Lionesses W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Millwall Lionesses W scores more
56%
level
18%
AFC Wimbledon W scores more
26%

Millwall Lionesses W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Millwall Lionesses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millwall Lionesses W vs AFC Wimbledon W

AFC Wimbledon W beat Millwall Lionesses W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at St Pauls’ Sports Ground in London.