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Millonarios W vs Independiente Medellín W — Liga Femenina 2020

Millonarios W
Millonarios W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente Medellín W
Independiente Medellín W
5/7/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 14Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Millonarios W50%
×Draw26%
Independiente Medellín W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios W
1.48
Independiente Medellín W
0.93

Millonarios W creates 59% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 56 away

creates per match

Millonarios W
1.65
Independiente Medellín W
1.11

allows per match

Millonarios W
0.75
Independiente Medellín W
1.30

finishing

Millonarios W+0.00on par
Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios W ↓

Independiente Medellín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios W or draw
76%
Millonarios W or Independiente Medellín W
74%
Draw or Independiente Medellín W
50%

Winning margin

Millonarios W wins by 2+
25%
Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Millonarios W 1+ goals
77%
Millonarios W 2+ goals
43%
Millonarios W 3+ goals
19%
Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals
61%
Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals
24%
Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millonarios W (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Independiente Medellín W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios W attack 1.65 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.11 + Millonarios W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Millonarios W scores more
50%
level
26%
Independiente Medellín W scores more
24%

Millonarios W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Millonarios W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millonarios W vs Independiente Medellín W

Millonarios W beat Independiente Medellín W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..