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Millonarios W vs Deportivo Pasto W — Liga Femenina 2020

Millonarios W
Millonarios W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto W
Deportivo Pasto W
2/18/2023Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 1Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Millonarios W62%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Pasto W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios W
1.72
Deportivo Pasto W
0.71

Millonarios W creates 142% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Millonarios W
1.65
Deportivo Pasto W
0.67

allows per match

Millonarios W
0.75
Deportivo Pasto W
1.79

finishing

Millonarios W+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios W ↓

Deportivo Pasto W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios W or draw
85%
Millonarios W or Deportivo Pasto W
77%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto W
38%

Winning margin

Millonarios W wins by 2+
35%
Deportivo Pasto W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Millonarios W 1+ goals
82%
Millonarios W 2+ goals
51%
Millonarios W 3+ goals
25%
Deportivo Pasto W 1+ goals
51%
Deportivo Pasto W 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Pasto W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios W (draw refunded)
80%
Deportivo Pasto W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Deportivo Pasto W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios W attack 1.65 + Deportivo Pasto W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Deportivo Pasto W attack 0.67 + Millonarios W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Millonarios W scores more
62%
level
23%
Deportivo Pasto W scores more
15%

Millonarios W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Millonarios W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Millonarios W 1–1 Deportivo Pasto W

Millonarios W and Deportivo Pasto W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..