Millonarios W 1–0 Deportivo Cali W: Result & Stats

Millonarios W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali W

6/30/2024

Liga Femenina · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 4Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Millonarios W41%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Cali W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Millonarios WExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Millonarios W

1.32

Deportivo Cali W

1.14

Millonarios W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 61 away

1.65

creates per match

1.52

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Millonarios W

1.65

Deportivo Cali W

1.52

allows per match

Millonarios W

0.75

Deportivo Cali W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios W+0.00on par

Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios W or draw

68%

Millonarios W or Deportivo Cali W

73%

Draw or Deportivo Cali W

59%

Winning margin

Millonarios W wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Millonarios W 1+ goals

73%

Millonarios W 2+ goals

38%

Millonarios W 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Millonarios W (draw refunded)

56%

Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios W attack 1.65 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Millonarios W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Millonarios W scores more

41%

level

27%

Deportivo Cali W scores more

32%

Millonarios W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millonarios W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff