Millonarios W 0–1 Atlético Huila W: Result & Stats

Millonarios W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Huila W

4/6/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 11Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Millonarios W52%

×Draw26%

Atlético Huila W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Millonarios WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Huila W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.88

Millonarios W

1.51

Atlético Huila W

0.88

Millonarios W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

1.65

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millonarios W

1.65

Atlético Huila W

1.00

allows per match

Millonarios W

0.75

Atlético Huila W

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios W+0.00on par

Atlético Huila W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios W ↓

Atlético Huila W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millonarios W or draw

78%

Millonarios W or Atlético Huila W

74%

Draw or Atlético Huila W

48%

Winning margin

Millonarios W wins by 2+

27%

Atlético Huila W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Millonarios W 1+ goals

78%

Millonarios W 2+ goals

44%

Millonarios W 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Huila W 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Huila W 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Huila W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Millonarios W (draw refunded)

70%

Atlético Huila W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Atlético Huila W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios W attack 1.65 + Atlético Huila W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Huila W attack 1.00 + Millonarios W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Millonarios W scores more

52%

level

26%

Atlético Huila W scores more

22%

Millonarios W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Millonarios W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Millonarios W 0–1 Atlético Huila W

Atlético Huila W beat Millonarios W 1-0 in Liga Femenina on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..

Millonarios W vs Atlético Huila W — Liga Femenina 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Femenina: Millonarios W 0–1 Atlético Huila W