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Millonarios W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

Millonarios W
Millonarios W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
3/30/2026Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Millonarios W71%
×Draw19%
Atlético Bucaramanga W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios W
2.04
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.62

Millonarios W creates 229% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

creates per match

Millonarios W
1.65
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

Millonarios W
0.75
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

Millonarios W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Millonarios W or draw
90%
Millonarios W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
81%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
29%

Winning margin

Millonarios W wins by 2+
45%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Millonarios W 1+ goals
87%
Millonarios W 2+ goals
60%
Millonarios W 3+ goals
33%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
46%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
13%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Millonarios W (draw refunded)
87%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios W at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios W attack 1.65 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.04

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Millonarios W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Millonarios W scores more
71%
level
19%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
10%

Millonarios W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Millonarios W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Millonarios W 6–0 Atlético Bucaramanga W

Millonarios W beat Atlético Bucaramanga W 6-0 in Liga Femenina on March 30, 2026.