Millonarios 2–0 Junior: Result & Stats | Primera A

Millonarios

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Junior

J. Pereira 58'

J. Peña 49' (OG)

6/2/2024

Primera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millonarios47%

×Draw28%

Junior25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.91

Millonarios

1.37

Junior

0.91

Millonarios creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.16

0.66

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Millonarios

1.44

Junior

1.16

allows per match

Millonarios

0.66

Junior

1.30

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Millonarios+0.47scores more

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

75%

Millonarios or Junior

72%

Draw or Junior

53%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

23%

Junior wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

75%

Millonarios 2+ goals

40%

Millonarios 3+ goals

16%

Junior 1+ goals

60%

Junior 2+ goals

23%

Junior 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

66%

Junior (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.44 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Junior attack 1.16 + Millonarios defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millonarios scores more

47%

level

28%

Junior scores more

25%

Millonarios at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Pereira

Millonarios · M

8.0

Match Events

49'

J. PeñaOwn goal

50'

Emanuel Olivera

54'

Larry Vásquez

58'

J. Pereira

62'

S. Rodríguez← Y. Chará

66'

Emerson Rodríguez

71'

N. Árevalo← L. Vásquez

77'

L. Paredes← E. Rodríguez

79'

Déiber Caicedo

83'

B. Castrillón← J. Enamorado

83'

L. González← D. Caicedo

86'

Homer Martinez

87'

E. Herrera← W. Pacheco

88'

J. Vélez← H. Martínez

90+6'

Steven Rodríguez

90+1'

B. Castro← D. Silva

90+2'

S. Navarro← D. Ruiz

90+2'

R. Brochero← S. Giordana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosJunior

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots13

1Corners5

14Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target2

9Off Target6

0Blocked5

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

410Total Passes417

314Accurate Passes337

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides5

Primera A: Millonarios 2–0 Junior

Millonarios beat Junior 2-0 in Primera A on June 2, 2024.

Goals: J. Peña (49' o.g.), J. Pereira (58').

Junior controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..

Millonarios vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Millonarios 2–0 Junior