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Millonarios vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Envigado
Envigado
5/17/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Millonarios52%
×Draw27%
Envigado21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.44
Envigado
0.79

Millonarios creates 82% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 152 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
Envigado
0.76

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
Envigado
1.39

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Envigado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
79%
Millonarios or Envigado
73%
Draw or Envigado
48%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
26%
Envigado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
76%
Millonarios 2+ goals
42%
Millonarios 3+ goals
18%
Envigado 1+ goals
55%
Envigado 2+ goals
19%
Envigado 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
72%
Envigado (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Envigado attack 0.76 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Millonarios scores more
52%
level
27%
Envigado scores more
21%

Millonarios at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Millonarios 1–0 Envigado

Millonarios beat Envigado 1-0 in Primera A on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..