Millonarios 1–0 Cortulua: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cortulua

J. Pereira 49'

2/27/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Millonarios55%

×Draw25%

Cortulua19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.80

Millonarios

1.56

Cortulua

0.80

Millonarios creates 95% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 24 away

1.50

creates per match

0.79

0.81

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Millonarios

1.50

Cortulua

0.79

allows per match

Millonarios

0.81

Cortulua

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

81%

Millonarios or Cortulua

75%

Draw or Cortulua

45%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

29%

Cortulua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

79%

Millonarios 2+ goals

46%

Millonarios 3+ goals

21%

Cortulua 1+ goals

55%

Cortulua 2+ goals

19%

Cortulua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

74%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 190 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Cortulua defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cortulua attack 0.79 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Millonarios scores more

55%

level

25%

Cortulua scores more

19%

Millonarios at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Pereira

Millonarios · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

B. Escobar← J. Pérez

30'

R. Celis

46'

C. Gómez← E. Guerra

46'

J. Quiñones← R. Celis

46'

M. Herrera← J. Mina

49'

J. Pereira

61'

K. Palacios← J. Caicedo

61'

Y. Contreras← L. Sinisterra

65'

K. Palacios

69'

Y. Contreras

80'

R. Márquez← J. Valencia

80'

D. Abadía← E. Sosa

81'

J. Palacios← J. Bocanegra

84'

E. Perlaza

90+4'

R. Marquez

90+4'

J. Palacios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillonariosCortulua

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots13

5Corners5

13Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target2

7Off Target6

6Blocked5

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

417Total Passes337

349Accurate Passes259

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1