Millonarios 1–0 Boston River: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Boston River

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Millonarios54%

×Draw25%

Boston River21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.88

Millonarios

1.58

Boston River

0.88

Millonarios creates 80% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Millonarios

1.50

Boston River

1.00

allows per match

Millonarios

0.75

Boston River

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

79%

Millonarios or Boston River

75%

Draw or Boston River

46%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

28%

Boston River wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

79%

Millonarios 2+ goals

47%

Millonarios 3+ goals

21%

Boston River 1+ goals

59%

Boston River 2+ goals

22%

Boston River 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

72%

Boston River (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + Boston River defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Boston River attack 1.00 + Millonarios defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Millonarios scores more

54%

level

25%

Boston River scores more

21%

Millonarios at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff