Millonarios vs America de Cali

Millonarios

Preview

01:00

America de Cali

10/27/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 17

Big match

47%

Millonarios

model favours

47%27%25%

Millonarios score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 190+ matches

Millonarios47%

×Draw27%

America de Cali25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Millonarios

1.38

America de Cali

0.93

Millonarios creates 48% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 190 away

1.50

creates per match

1.04

0.81

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Millonarios

1.50

America de Cali

1.04

allows per match

Millonarios

0.81

America de Cali

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

75%

Millonarios or America de Cali

73%

Draw or America de Cali

53%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

23%

America de Cali wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

75%

Millonarios 2+ goals

40%

Millonarios 3+ goals

16%

America de Cali 1+ goals

61%

America de Cali 2+ goals

24%

America de Cali 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

65%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millonarios scores more

47%

level

27%

America de Cali scores more

25%

Millonarios at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

America de Cali score first in only 27% of matches
73% of America de Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Both teams score in 71% of Millonarios’s matches
Style contrast — Millonarios play Attack-heavy, America de Cali Defensively solid
Millonarios sit 13, America de Cali 3 in the table
America de Cali outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Millonarios

Attack-heavy

America de Cali

Defensively solid

51%Possession52%

80%Pass accuracy80%

13.9Shots13.9

1.43xGBiggest gap1.19

MillonariosAmerica de Cali

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Millonarios

1

Draws

4

America de Cali

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%

1–32–10–01–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Millonarios

LLWLD

Cali

LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff