Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Millonarios vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
10/8/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 191+ matches

Millonarios47%
×Draw27%
America de Cali25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.38
America de Cali
0.93

Millonarios creates 48% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 191 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.50
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Millonarios
0.81
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
75%
Millonarios or America de Cali
73%
Draw or America de Cali
53%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
23%
America de Cali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
75%
Millonarios 2+ goals
40%
Millonarios 3+ goals
16%
America de Cali 1+ goals
61%
America de Cali 2+ goals
24%
America de Cali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
65%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 191 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.50 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Millonarios defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millonarios scores more
47%
level
27%
America de Cali scores more
25%

Millonarios at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Millonarios 2–1 America de Cali

Millonarios beat America de Cali 2-1 in Primera A on October 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..