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Milling Hotspurs vs Tambuti — Premier League 2020

Milling Hotspurs
Milling Hotspurs
FT
1 – 0
Tambuti
Tambuti
4/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milling Hotspurs45%
×Draw25%
Tambuti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milling Hotspurs
1.51
Tambuti
1.19

Milling Hotspurs creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.14
Tambuti
0.98

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs
1.41
Tambuti
1.88

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par
Tambuti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Tambuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw
70%
Milling Hotspurs or Tambuti
75%
Draw or Tambuti
55%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+
22%
Tambuti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals
78%
Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals
44%
Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals
19%
Tambuti 1+ goals
70%
Tambuti 2+ goals
33%
Tambuti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)
60%
Tambuti (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Tambuti away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Tambuti defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tambuti attack 0.98 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more
45%
level
25%
Tambuti scores more
30%

Milling Hotspurs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milling Hotspurs vs Tambuti

Milling Hotspurs beat Tambuti 1-0 in Premier League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at King Sobhuza II Memorial Stadium in Nhlangano.