Milling Hotspurs 2–1 Manzini Wanderers

Milling Hotspurs

FT

2 – 1

Manzini Wanderers

2/12/2022

Premier League · Round 12Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Milling Hotspurs40%

×Draw27%

Manzini Wanderers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milling HotspursExpected goals in this matchManzini Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Milling Hotspurs

1.33

Manzini Wanderers

1.20

Milling Hotspurs creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 69 away

1.14

creates per match

0.99

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Milling Hotspurs

1.14

Manzini Wanderers

0.99

allows per match

Milling Hotspurs

1.41

Manzini Wanderers

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milling Hotspurs+0.00on par

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milling Hotspurs ↓

Manzini Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milling Hotspurs or draw

66%

Milling Hotspurs or Manzini Wanderers

73%

Draw or Manzini Wanderers

60%

Winning margin

Milling Hotspurs wins by 2+

18%

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Milling Hotspurs 1+ goals

74%

Milling Hotspurs 2+ goals

38%

Milling Hotspurs 3+ goals

15%

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals

70%

Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals

34%

Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Milling Hotspurs (draw refunded)

54%

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milling Hotspurs at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milling Hotspurs attack 1.14 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Milling Hotspurs defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Milling Hotspurs scores more

40%

level

27%

Manzini Wanderers scores more

34%

Milling Hotspurs at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Milling Hotspurs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff