Military Union SC 2–1 Al Sadaqa: Result & Stats

Military Union SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sadaqa

12/24/2025

Premier League · Group C - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Military Union SC58%

×Draw26%

Al Sadaqa16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Military Union SCExpected goals in this matchAl Sadaqa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.63

Military Union SC

1.50

Al Sadaqa

0.63

Military Union SC creates 138% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 58 away

1.70

creates per match

0.66

0.60

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Military Union SC

1.70

Al Sadaqa

0.66

allows per match

Military Union SC

0.60

Al Sadaqa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Military Union SC+0.00on par

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Military Union SC ↓

Al Sadaqa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Military Union SC or draw

84%

Military Union SC or Al Sadaqa

74%

Draw or Al Sadaqa

42%

Winning margin

Military Union SC wins by 2+

31%

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Military Union SC 1+ goals

78%

Military Union SC 2+ goals

44%

Military Union SC 3+ goals

19%

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals

47%

Al Sadaqa 2+ goals

13%

Al Sadaqa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Military Union SC (draw refunded)

79%

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Military Union SC at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Al Sadaqa away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Military Union SC attack 1.70 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Sadaqa attack 0.66 + Military Union SC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Military Union SC scores more

58%

level

26%

Al Sadaqa scores more

16%

Military Union SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Military Union SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff