Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milin vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Milin
Milin
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
9/28/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8TJ Ligmet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Milin67%
×Draw19%
Slavia Vejprnice14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milin
2.27
Slavia Vejprnice
0.95

Milin creates 139% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Milin
1.87
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Milin
1.37
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Milin+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milin ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Milin or draw
86%
Milin or Slavia Vejprnice
81%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
33%

Winning margin

Milin wins by 2+
44%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Milin 1+ goals
90%
Milin 2+ goals
66%
Milin 3+ goals
39%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
61%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
25%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Milin (draw refunded)
82%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milin at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milin attack 1.87 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Milin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Milin scores more
67%
level
19%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
14%

Milin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Milin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Milin 6–0 Slavia Vejprnice

Milin beat Slavia Vejprnice 6-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at TJ Ligmet in Milín.