Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milénium vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Milénium
Milénium
CANC
15:00
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
5/30/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium30%
×Draw23%
Vranov nad Topľou47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milénium
1.39
Vranov nad Topľou
1.79

Vranov nad Topľou creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 81 away

creates per match

Milénium
1.29
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Milénium
2.43
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Milénium or draw
53%
Milénium or Vranov nad Topľou
77%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
70%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+
13%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals
75%
Milénium 2+ goals
40%
Milénium 3+ goals
16%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
83%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
53%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)
39%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milénium scores more
30%
level
23%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
47%

Vranov nad Topľou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vranov nad Topľou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Milénium vs Vranov nad Topľou — Match Preview

Milénium face Vranov nad Topľou on May 30, 2021 in this 3. liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.