Milénium 2–1 Svidník: Result & Stats

Milénium

FT

2 – 1

Svidník

9/6/2020

3. liga - East · East - 7Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium51%

×Draw20%

Svidník29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiléniumExpected goals in this matchSvidník

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.75

Milénium

2.32

Svidník

1.75

Milénium creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 52 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

2.43

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Milénium

1.29

Svidník

1.06

allows per match

Milénium

2.43

Svidník

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par

Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Svidník →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Milénium or draw

71%

Milénium or Svidník

80%

Draw or Svidník

49%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+

31%

Svidník wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals

90%

Milénium 2+ goals

67%

Milénium 3+ goals

40%

Svidník 1+ goals

83%

Svidník 2+ goals

52%

Svidník 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)

63%

Svidník (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.32

Svidník attack 1.06 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Milénium scores more

51%

level

20%

Svidník scores more

29%

Milénium at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Milénium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff