Milénium 2–3 Spišská Nová Ves: Result & Stats

Milénium

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Spišská Nová Ves

6/13/2021

3. liga - East · East - 15Futbalový štadión Bardejovská Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium19%

×Draw21%

Spišská Nová Ves60%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiléniumExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.08

Milénium

1.10

Spišská Nová Ves

2.08

Spišská Nová Ves creates 89% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 64 away

1.29

creates per match

1.73

2.43

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Milénium

1.29

Spišská Nová Ves

1.73

allows per match

Milénium

2.43

Spišská Nová Ves

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Milénium or draw

40%

Milénium or Spišská Nová Ves

79%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

81%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+

7%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals

67%

Milénium 2+ goals

30%

Milénium 3+ goals

10%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

87%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

61%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)

25%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Milénium scores more

19%

level

21%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

60%

Spišská Nová Ves at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff