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Milénium vs Pokrok Krompachy — 3. liga - East 2020

Milénium
Milénium
CANC
14:30
Pokrok Krompachy
Pokrok Krompachy
5/2/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Milénium58%
×Draw19%
Pokrok Krompachy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milénium
2.47
Pokrok Krompachy
1.52

Milénium creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Milénium
1.29
Pokrok Krompachy
0.61

allows per match

Milénium
2.43
Pokrok Krompachy
3.65

finishing

Milénium+0.00on par
Pokrok Krompachy+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milénium ↓

Pokrok Krompachy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Milénium or draw
77%
Milénium or Pokrok Krompachy
81%
Draw or Pokrok Krompachy
42%

Winning margin

Milénium wins by 2+
37%
Pokrok Krompachy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milénium 1+ goals
91%
Milénium 2+ goals
70%
Milénium 3+ goals
44%
Pokrok Krompachy 1+ goals
78%
Pokrok Krompachy 2+ goals
45%
Pokrok Krompachy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Milénium (draw refunded)
72%
Pokrok Krompachy (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milénium at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Pokrok Krompachy away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milénium attack 1.29 + Pokrok Krompachy defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.47

Pokrok Krompachy attack 0.61 + Milénium defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Milénium scores more
58%
level
19%
Pokrok Krompachy scores more
23%

Milénium at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Milénium will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Milénium face Pokrok Krompachy (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Milénium hosting Pokrok Krompachy. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.